"(T)o say that the individual is culturally constituted has become a truism. . . . We assume, almost without question, that a self belongs to a specific cultural world much as it speaks a native language." James Clifford
Showing posts with label blind-spots human nature. Show all posts
Showing posts with label blind-spots human nature. Show all posts

Sunday, June 28, 2026

On the Startling Pace of Global Warming: Calculus Applied

I went to Yale to study for four years (and then to Wisconsin for four years for post-doc study under a Harvard scholar), after having completed a Ph.D. program elsewhere (and decades later I went to Harvard (including auditing coursework at Yale for one term) for 1.5 years of continued study in comparative theology and ethics, and independent research) because my education at my first university, that of Kansas, was so bad; that university, run by sophomoric Jayhawks, did not heed the value of retaining faculty financially once promoted from the assistant level, and the graduate students who were teaching undergraduates were not trained in pedagogy. Significant to my unsatisfactory education at the University of Kansas was my decision to switch to business administration and accounting “mid-stream” without any regard to the opportunity cost of foregone coursework in the humanities in the liberal arts. When I was teaching accounting on the side while studying at Yale a decade later, I finally received confirmation that I had indeed made a significant educational mistake at KU, for when some Yale College students petitioned Dean Brodhead to create a major in business, he replied in the Yale Daily News, “Let us educate you first; then go out and get trained.” This priority and sequence are both severely eclipsed at “state” or public, universities in virtually every U.S. state, whereas the E.U. does a better job of distinguishing institutionally knowledge from vocational skill. Even the teaching in the liberal arts at the University of Kansas was lackluster, though I probably would have still made the move to business had the teaching been good. In calculus, for example, the graduate-student instructor did not think it necessary to explain that a derivative refers to the changing rate of acceleration rather than to acceleration itself; his exclusive orientation was to calculating so as to get us to arrive at correct answers. We were like trained seals. The graduate-student instructor of Physics, who could barely speak English (but that didn’t matter to the department’s receptionist), also did not feel obliged to explain what the formulae mean. Why does force equal mass times acceleration? Missing from E=MC2 was the point that energy can become mass (Higgs would not be discovered for decades though). Whereas questions of physics have remained less than pressing through my adult life, climate change has turbo-charged the significance of the derivative, for the rate of acceleration of climate change, as evinced in the heatwaves in the E.U. during the summer of 2026, had already been positive and was increasing both as a number and in value qua significance. The melting glaciers in the Alps indicated then that the pace of human-caused climate change was much faster than previously expected. My inability to “see the forest” instead of individual “trees” at Kansas regarding my own college education can be likened to our species’ inability (and refusal) to grasp the true significance of climate change as a threat to our species’ very survival, and certainly comfort.

Regarding the impact of human-caused carbon (and methane) emissions on the heat-waves gripping Europe in the early summer (at least) of 2026, Dr. Theodore Keeping of Imperial College London said at the time, “The science of how climate change is worsening heatwaves is settled. Continued fossil-fuel emissions are directly responsible for the disruption people are experiencing this week in their homes, schools and workplaces. The speed of change is startling. Every few years we are seeing heat records shattered in Europe. This year it has been in consecutive months.”[1] That the speed was startling can be taken as a red flag, or very significant warning, that, as an old proverb states, the chickens are coming home to roust. In other words, humanity could no longer pretend that climate change is only an abstraction without “real world” consequences.

Science from World Weather Attribution (WWA) “found that both the daytime highs and overnight temperatures seen during the heatwave in late June, 2026] would have been ‘virtually impossible to occur at [that same] time of year’ as recently as 1976—just 50 years ago. A similar heatwave occurring in that historic climate would [have been] 3.5C cooler.”[2] In that year, in early July, I was a mere boy using tacks to pin an American flag I had made to the wood-front of my parent’s house for the bicentennial, and I don’t recall the heat (other than that which was released by my parents) being all that unbearable then in Illinois, which admittedly is a U.S. rather than an E.U. member-state. Even though the expression, virtually impossible, is itself startling, so too is an increase rate of acceleration, as was evinced in the melting of glaciers in central Europe in June, 2026.

Due to the heatwave that was holding on in Europe, the snow and ice accumulated over the previous winter on existing glaciers in the Alps was expected to have completely melted away by 29 June, 2026. In other words, from that day on, “every additional day of melting” would “shirk the size of the glacier[s].”[3] Since 2000, that point, known as glacier loss day, has usually not been until mid-August. Matthias Huss, the director of GLAMOS in Europe, warned that the glaciers were “shrinking at an unprecedented rate, accelerated by the ongoing heatwave.”[4] Huss stated, “We are three months too early compared to a healthy state” of the glaciers.[5] This all points to, or suggests, that the rate of acceleration of climate change was increasing; the derivative was positive as of 2026. Indeed, the melting of the glaciers had been “relatively modest until recent decades,” and the melting during the first month of summer in 2026 in turn made the rate in those recent decades look relatively modest.[6]

Among the many implications of an increasing rate of acceleration is the likelihood that the climate-change models being used to forecast warming going forward were in need of being adjusted, with dire impacts being predicted as coming sooner than had been expected even in the early 2020s. Another implication is that the continuing increase in carbon (ppm) in the atmosphere really needed to be stopped sooner rather than later. As of 5 June, 2026, the atmospheric carbon dioxide level was at 432.34 ppm, according to the NOAA (measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory), whereas the corresponding figure had been 429.61 ppm a year earlier. Besides the increasing global population, part of the reason for why reductions in overall fossil-fuel usage continued to be so difficult was that not every continent was facing extreme heat, and thus the dire consequences already, so sufficiently broad-based political will was still lacking even though virtually every European in June of 2026 was doubtlessly convinced that global warming is real and that carbon dioxide and methane levels in the atmosphere had already reached unacceptable levels. Similarly, not every place on the planet was at risk of increased flooding from sea-level rise. Italy, California, Greece, Florida, the Netherlands, and New York, for example, can easily be distinguished from Czechia, Illinois, Poland, Colorado, Luxemburg, and Arizona with regard to probable impacts from higher oceans. Fundamentally, both democracies and autocracies are vulnerable to not acting sufficiently in anticipation of yet-unfelt dire consequences; our species is not as rational as we may suppose, and this weakness “comes home to roust” especially amid increasing rates of acceleration.



1. Liam Gilliver, “Climate Change is Running Rampant: Europe’s Heatwave ‘Virtually Impossible’ 50 Years Ago,” Euronews.com, 26 June 2026, italics added for emphasis.
2. Ibid.
3. Evelyn Dom, “Swiss Glaciers Melting at Alarming Rate in June as Europe Faces Extreme Heat,” Euronews.com, 28 June, 2026.
4. Ibid, italics added for emphasis.
5. Ibid.
6. Ibid.

Wednesday, August 16, 2023

Getting the Seasons Wrong: Purblind Meteorologists

You may think you know the answer to the question, “When is the autumn season?” But do you?  Watching the weather section of local news on television or the internet, you could be excused for getting the beginning date wrong because it is the meteorologist who has misled you. In itself, getting the exact day right is not a big deal; it is not as if the temperature can be expected to take a nose-dive on the first day of fall. The astonishing thing is that so many meteorologists either knowingly or out of ignorance present the astronomical beginning of the “autumn” quarter of the Earth’s orbit as the meteorological start of fall, for the two are different yet admittedly related.

“According to The Old Farmer’s Almanac, meteorological seasons are based on the temperature cycle in a calendar year.”[1] The first month of a given season tends resemble the preceding season and the last month anticipates the upcoming season. A season comes is fully its own in its second month. Each season lasts three months. “Meteorological fall begins on September 1” in the Northern Hemisphere and ends “exactly 90 days later, on November 30. Winter then gets its three months. Growing up in a northern Midwestern (U.S.) state, I just assumed that snowy March was part of winter. It sure felt like that. Only later, while living in the Southwest, did I realize that temperatures do start to go up in March.

Distinct but having an impact on meteorological seasons, the astronomical seasons are “based on the position of Earth in relation to the sun’s position.”[2] There are such seasons because of the tilt of the Earth in relation to the sun. On the summer solstice—the astronomical beginning of “summer”—the sun’s perpendicular rays get the farthest north; the Northern Hemisphere tilts toward the sun. The Southern Hemisphere is closest on the winter solstice—the astronomical beginning of “winter.” Again, while growing up in the northern Midwest, I knew that meteorological winter could not possibly start well into December just before Christmas, for winter cold was well ensconced by that time. The meteorological start of winter, on December 1st, is much more accurate in terms of temperature.

It is odd, therefore, that the start dates of the astronomical seasons are “more commonly celebrated” even to mark changes in weather.[3] A weather site or television broadcast using the astronomical start-date is inherently misleading, as the implication is incorrect. Even though Accuweather.com states, “Astronomical autumn officially arrives on Saturday, Sept. 23 at 2:50 a.m. EDT, a few weeks after the arrival of meteorological fall,” the presentation of the two starts by a weather organization may be confusing, especially as the paragraph continues with: “Regardless of which date you celebrate the start of autumn, . . .”[4] In an article on the fall weather forecast, two start-dates for that seasons are given. At least Accuweather.com distinguishes the astronomical from the meteorological. Local meteorologists use the astronomical dates on charts of weekly weather forecasts. 

On this weather chart, the Thursday (September 22nd) is labeled as "Fall." 

This is definitely misleading—or is it the case that local weather personalities do not realize their mistakes? At the very least, the television meteorologists astonishingly do not realize that they are giving false information—that they are misleading the public. It is absurd, at least in the northern tier of U.S. member states to say that summer does not begin until June 21st and that winter does not begin until a few days before Christmas. To stick with something that is so obviously absurd and incorrect when meteorologists should know better is precisely the cognitive phenomenon that I want to highlight here.

Perhaps the culprit is cognitive dissidence: the brain holding two contradictory thoughts at the same time. I know this date is astronomical AND I am using it on a weather forecast AND I know that the meteorological date is different. This weakness or vulnerability of the human brain may mean that there are others.

Regarding religious and political ideological beliefs, the brain may be susceptible to “short-circuiting” an internal check that would otherwise keep the brain from conflating belief with knowledge. A person once told me that Michele Obama is really a man. I disagreed. The person replied, “That’s just your opinion; I have the facts.” I said that I did not want to discuss politics. “It’s not political,” she replied. My claim to the contrary was, again, “just an opinion.” I was stunned at such ignorance that couldn’t be wrong.  Next, she wrote a nonsensical “deep state” political coded message on an index card. That her brain would not entertain the possibility that it could be in error is precisely the vulnerability that I contend plagues the brain as it ventures into political and religious domains of cognitions. In short, I suggest that a healthy human brain has more cognitive weaknesses than merely being subjective, and that society is overwhelmingly oblivious to them.



[1] Amaya McDonald, “When and How to Watch the Perseid Meteor Shower,” CNN.com, August 11, 2023.
[2] Ibid.
[3] Ibid.
[4] Brian Lada, “AccuWeather’s 2023 US Fall Forecast,” Accuweather.com, July 26, 2023.